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A Record Year in Aerospace

2007 was a remarkable year for western Washington's largest employer, the Boeing Co.'s Commercial Airplanes division. The year ahead will be no less crucial.

Boeing sold 1,413 commercial jets in 2007, an all-time record. It was the third year in a row that both Boeing and competitor Airbus had sold more than 1,000 planes apiece - a figure that once seemed unfathomable. The run was set off by several factors:

  • Airlines stopped buying planes after the September 11 terrorist attacks, creating pent-up demand;
  • The growth of China, India and the Middle East created new airline markets;
  • High fuel prices and the growing green movement gave many airlines incentive to replace their old gas-guzzling planes with more-efficient new ones;
  • New jets - particularly Boeing's 787 Dreamliner - provided the promise of ground-breaking advances in fuel economy, ease of maintenance and comfort.

But even as airlines ordered a record 369 787s last year, Boeing struggled - and failed - to get the first Dreamliner flying. To hold development costs down, the company had outsourced more of the 787's design and manufacturing than ever before. Some of the suppliers simply failed, and failed badly. The first flight - originally scheduled for September 2007 - has been delayed three times. Airlines won't get their first planes until 2009, nearly a year late. Boeing is in talks with several buyers who want to get paid, and with suppliers who need help with lost revenue. Wall Street has punished the stock.

Boeing's foremost task in 2008 will be to fix the 787 supply chain problems and get the Dreamliner launched. It is pouring hundreds of millions into the effort, as it - belatedly - steps up oversight of its suppliers. But failure to do so will be even more costly.

After three years of record orders, Boeing's 2008 sales total will undoubtedly be lower than last year's. Executives for both Boeing and Airbus have suggested sales between 450 and 600 for both. However, with a backlog of more than 3,200 planes, new orders aren't critical. More important, in fact, will be whether Boeing can keep buyers from cancelling orders, as markets sweat out the current financial upheaval. CEO Jim McNerney was bullish on that during January's year-end earnings call.

A key military contract could be decided soon. The Pentagon is expected to award, by April, a hotly contested contract for 179 aerial refueling tankers, worth about $40 billion. If Boeing wins, it will build modified 767 airlines at its Everett factory.

Finally, Boeing faces major labor issues this year. Contracts for its two largest unions - the machinists and the engineers - are up for renewal. After strikes in 2000 and 2005, early signs are that Boeing wants peace with its unions. The labor force is growing, too. Boeing added roughly 6,500 workers to its Washington payrolls in 2007. With the big backlog of orders and the urgent needs of the Everett-based 787, more hiring is likely. State economists estimate Boeing's workforce will level off this year at about 83,000 people - 3,000 more than it employed on September 11.

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