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As of February, the Washington economy is holding up very well compared with the national economy. February brought news of a worsening situation in financial markets, along with moves by the Federal Reserve system to shore up confidence and lessen borrowing costs, as well as passage of a $168 billion stimulus package. Clearly there is significant risk of a serious national recession. However, consider the employment data in the accompanying table. Washington's overall employment growth rate, just 1.8 percent compared with February 2007, was three times the pace nationally. In all but two industry categories, Washington's performance exceeded the national rate. Natural resources and mining declined in February in Washington, in comparison to a strong pace nationally driven by export opportunities for commodities. And our education and health services sector dipped just slightly below the national pace, a finding that may be a statistical anomaly. The fundamental strengths of the Washington economy are also reflected in these data. Manufacturing in Washington, buoyed by Boeing's robust order book, is growing considerably stronger than manufacturing nationwide, while the information technology industry, led in Washington by Microsoft and other software publishers, is growing faster than the statewide all-industry pace while its national equivalent is in decline. Software publishing, of course, is a smaller component of the national publishing industry than it is at the state level. And finally, the transportation sector in Washington is busy shipping agricultural and manufactured products to offshore customers while continuing to feed a slowing flow of imported products into U.S. markets.
Paul Sommers is a professor at the Institute of Public Service and Albers School of Business at Seattle University.