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Tuesday, February 19, 2008 Chang Mook Sohn on the Washington state economy

By: Aaron Corvin

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"We are not expecting a recession this year" as the economy, bracketed by growth in the aerospace, software and construction industries, continues to fare better than the rest of the U.S.
Despite modest growth in aerospace, software and construction, the state will be affected by the slowdown in the national economy. As a result, the state expects employment growth rates of 1.8 percent in 2008 and 2009, down from 2.8 percent and 2.9 percent in 2007 and 2006, respectively.
Single-family housing permits, a bellwether of future economic performance, fell 3,000 in 2006 to 50,000. Permits slid another 1,600 in 2007 to 48,400. The decline in permits is expected to hit 43,200 in 2008 before edging up to 44,900 in 2009.
Inflation, as measured by the Seattle Consumer Price Index, increased to 3.7 percent in 2006 from 2.8 percent in 2005. Energy costs added slightly to inflation in 2007 but a slowdown in the overall economy and declining energy costs should help lower overall inflation to 2.4 percent in 2008 and 2.5 percent in 2009.
Washington, as one of the nation's most trade-dependent states, is positioned to benefit from robust growth in the global economy and a declining U.S. dollar.

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