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Waiting for a tanker decision . . . Tuesday, February 26, 2008 ·

By: Bryan Corliss

Jet Set

No word on tankers from the Pentagon this morning. So, while we wait, let's look at some other news.

The Los Angeles Times has an interesting profile on new Boeing 787 chief, Pat Shanahan. He doesn't have a high profile outside the company, but inside it, he's developing a reputation as Mr. Fix-It, reports Peter Pae. Shanahan was brought in to solve production problems with the V-22 and Boeing missile defense units before drawing the task of fixing the delayed Dreamliner.

Shanahan has a knack for "frank and simple characterization(s) of . . . complex problem(s)," the Times said.

That's good, because the customers are getting restless, to the point that Reuters reports that long-time Boeing-only customer and first-tier Dreamliner buyer Japan Airlines is considering buying Airbus A350s.

Two executives told Reuters that they're considering the Airbus order, and the 787 delays clearly is a reason. One told the news service that "the risk of procuring from one firm for our next-generation planes is large. We should procure from more than one."

Reuters didn't ask if this move toward Airbus has anything to do with Boeing's acknowledgment last week that it's halting development on the short-range 787-3 in order to focus resources on the much-delayed 787-8. JAL and All Nippon Airways are the only buyers so far for the Dash Three. But it's interesting to speculate, isn't it?

At the same time, this seems more like frustration talking than a rational plan. As late as the 787 is, it's still a good four years ahead of the A350, and Airbus' record of delays with the A380 is still worse than Boeing's 787 hang-ups.

But if a loyal Boeing customer like JAL is talking like this, that's certainly an indication of the kind of customer dissatisfaction out there.

One piece of good news for the 787 program: GE flew its demonstration plane up to Everett yesterday to show off its development work on the engine it's building for the Dreamliner.

Elsewhere, my friends at Flight International had an interesting sit-down with ILFC's Steve Udvar-Hazy to talk about Boeing's next widebody jet program - the replacement for the 777. The new A350 has been stealing market share from the 777-200ER and -200LR, raising speculation that the company will have to fast-track a successor.

There's no rush, Hazy says, calling it "way too premature to design a successor to the 777, especially with the lack of experience with the 787."

Instead, Boeing would be better off making incremental improvements to the 777 while cutting prices on it, Hazy said. Boeing executives have talked about doing the incremental improvements piece - but I haven't heard them admit any price cuts.

Hazy also issued a warning that the next couple years are going to be a struggle in the sales arena, and that Boeing and Airbus will have to work hard to keep their record orders backlogs in line.

With the global economy slowing, he said, "airlines will start looking in the mirror every few months and ask: 'What can we really absorb here?' Once those reality checks are done more frequently, we will begin to see some major adjustments on a macroeconomic basis."

Hazy estimated up to 25 percent of the current orders can be considered "flaky or could disintegrate rapidly to become flaky and would be subject to deferral and cancellation."

I'm not going to second-guess Hazy. But it should be noted that even if Boeing loses 25 percent of its current orders, it still will have more than 2,500 planes in its backlog - or more than five years of work at the most-recent production rates. That's enough to keep its Puget Sound employment at present levels through the end of 2012.

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