Perhaps it's a function of our swirling, blathering, attention-decifit-disordered 24-hour news cycle, but it's often difficult to find any kind of sober analysis of our current economic situation.

Yes, the sub-prime mess and credit crunch are ominous twins of greed and stupidity. There's plenty of reason to leave the rose-colored glasses on the table and to worry.

However, while trolling the web I found this white paper on the Freakonomics blog which provides exactly the kind of sober analysis you won't find on MSNBC, CNN or Fox News. The paper, "Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," was written by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The paper points out that the current crisis is, in many ways, similar to previous crises:

"Our examination of the longer historical record finds stunning qualitative and quantitative parallels to 18 earlier post-war banking crises in industrialized countries. Specifically, the run-up in U.S. equity and housing prices (which, for countries experiencing large capital inflows, stands out as the best leading indicator in the financial crisis literature) closely tracks the average of the earlier crises."

The authors write that there is good, as well as bad, news to be gleaned from the comparison of this crisis to those of the past:

"Among other indicators, the run-up in U.S. public debt is actually somewhat below the average of other episodes, and its pre-crisis inflation level is also lower. On the other hand, the United States[?s] current account deficit trajectory is worse than average."

While the deliverers of the sound-bitten 24-hour news cycle wouldn't like it, the authors display remarkable restraint in assessing whether the current crisis will spread further or taper off enough to invite recovery:

"Much will depend on how large the shock to the financial system proves to be and, to a lesser extent, on the efficacy of the subsequent policy response."

To read a summary of the white paper, go here or check out the Freakonomics blog which has a link to the full pdf of the paper. Don't expect easy answers. Just a refreshingly sober take on the state of the economy.