All kinds of reports are surfacing about the potential blockbuster Delta-Northwest merger, which could get announced next week:
Up in Lynnwood Monday, go-to analyst Richard Aboulafia said the Delta-Northwest merger - and any others that may follow - will likely delay major orders by major U.S. carriers into 2009.
Certainly I'd buy that. Management will have enough on its hands as it is.
But Richard went against conventional wisdom when he said that merged airlines aren't likely to go out shopping to replace their aging fleets of MD-80s and other ancient single-aisle jets for their domestic routes.
"Domestic (airline) service is more and more like Greyhound everyday," Aboulafia said. There's no money in it. As a result, U.S. airlines are far more interested in chasing fatter margins on international flights. That means they'll need new twin-aisle jets.
"I don't think the action's in single-aisles," Richard said. "They're going to put money into 787s and A350s."
He projects "decent numbers" of widebody sales in from the merged airline in 2009 - even assuming a mild recession - but, he added, "I don't see the massive numbers you'd need to see a second spike."
What does a merger mean for travelers? In a report for ABC News, FareCompare.com looked at the Delta and Northwest route structures and found only seven city-pairs where the two seriously overlap: Atlanta - Memphis; Atlanta - Minneapolis; Atlanta - Detroit; Cincinnati - Detroit; Cincinnati - Minneapolis; Salt Lake City - Minneapolis; and Los Angeles - Honolulu.
Given that, "the merger of Northwest and Delta doesn't, at first blush, appear to have much negative effect on general competitive ticket pricing, though the current trend of airfare hikes across all airlines - mostly related to fuel - will likely continue," FareCompare's Rick Seaney said.
There's even some good news for SeaTac flyers: two new airlines are entering the Seattle market, offering flights to California, and increased competition will almost certainly lead to lower fares.
Virgin America plans to start service to its hub in San Francisco in March, with Seattle-to-LA flights planned to start in April. JetBlue plans flights from SeaTac to Long Beach and San Diego in May.